Introduction: A Tipping Point for Internal Combustion Engines
The era of gasoline-powered vehicles (ICE vehicles) is rapidly drawing to a close. With the EU's 2035 ban on new ICE car sales, China's target to make EVs 40% of new car sales by 2030, and the U.S. aiming for 50% EV sales by 2030, the writing is on the wall. But for the 1.2 billion ICE vehicle owners worldwide, the transition won't be seamless. A new analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that within the next five years, ICE car owners will face three unprecedented challenges-ones that will reshape how they buy, drive, and maintain their vehicles. For international readers, understanding these challenges is critical for making informed decisions about their next car purchase.
I. Challenge 1: Plummeting Resale Values and Depreciation
ICE vehicles have long held their value better than early EVs, but that trend is reversing-fast.
1. Depreciation Speeds Up
Data from Kelley Blue Book: A 3-year-old ICE vehicle now retains 55% of its value, down from 68% in 2020. By 2028, this is projected to drop to 45%. In contrast, a 3-year-old EV retains 65% of its value (up from 52% in 2020).
Why the Shift? As governments phase out ICE vehicles, buyers are avoiding used models for fear of obsolescence. A 2024 survey by J.D. Power found 62% of U.S. car buyers would "never consider" a used ICE vehicle, up from 28% in 2022.
2. Limited Trade-In Options
Automaker Policies: Brands like Ford and Volkswagen have already cut trade-in values for ICE vehicles by 15-20% compared to EVs. In Europe, BMW offers €3,000 more for trading in an EV than an ICE car of the same age.
Retailer Resistance: Used car dealerships are stocking fewer ICE vehicles-U.S. chain CarMax now devotes 40% of its lot space to EVs, up from 10% in 2022. This means fewer buyers for used ICE cars, further driving down prices.
II. Challenge 2: Shrinking Maintenance Networks and Rising Costs
ICE vehicles rely on specialized parts and mechanics, but both are becoming harder to find.
1. Closing Service Centers
Global Trends: In Europe, 25% of ICE-only service centers have closed since 2020, and another 30% plan to shut down by 2028, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). In the U.S., independent repair shops that focus solely on ICE vehicles are closing at a rate of 5% per year.
Rural Impact: The problem is worse in rural areas. In parts of the U.S. Midwest and Eastern Europe, drivers now have to travel 50+ miles to find a mechanic who can service older ICE vehicles.
2. Skyrocketing Parts Costs
Supply Chain Issues: As manufacturers shift to EV production, ICE parts production has dropped by 40% since 2022. This has led to a 35% increase in the cost of common parts like fuel injectors and transmission components.
Obsolete Technology: By 2029, parts for ICE vehicles older than 10 years will be "hard to source," according to auto parts giant Bosch. This means owners of older ICE cars may face costly repairs or even be forced to scrap their vehicles early.
III. Challenge 3: Restricted Access to Cities and Higher Usage Costs
Governments and cities are using policies to discourage ICE vehicle use, adding financial and practical burdens.
1. Low-Emission Zones (LEZs) Expand
Europe Leading the Way: 90% of European cities with populations over 500,000 now have LEZs that ban or charge fees for older ICE vehicles. London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) now covers the entire city, charging £12.50 ($15) per day for non-compliant ICE cars. By 2028, the EU plans to require all cities with 200,000+ residents to have LEZs.
U.S. and Asia Following: New York City will launch its own LEZ in 2026, charging $15 per day for older ICE vehicles. Tokyo and Seoul plan similar zones by 2027.
2. Higher Taxes and Fees
Fuel Taxes Rise: To fund EV infrastructure, 28 countries have increased gasoline taxes by 10-20% since 2022. In Germany, gasoline now costs €1.80 per liter ($7.20 per gallon), up from €1.50 per liter in 2020.
Registration Fees: France, Sweden, and Canada have introduced "ICE penalties"-higher registration fees for ICE vehicles. In Sweden, registering a new ICE car costs €1,500 more than registering an EV.
Conclusion: Preparing for the Transition
The challenges facing ICE vehicle owners are not just about "going green"-they're about practicality and affordability. For owners, the best strategy is to plan ahead:
Consider Early Trade-In: Trading in an ICE vehicle now, before values drop further, can help avoid financial losses.
Choose Hybrid or EV for Next Purchase: Hybrids can be a "bridge" for those not ready for full EVs, while EVs offer long-term savings on fuel and maintenance.
Stay Informed: Monitor local LEZ and tax policies to avoid unexpected fees.
As IEA Director Fatih Birol puts it: "The shift to EVs is inevitable, but it doesn't have to be painful. ICE vehicle owners who plan ahead will be best positioned to navigate the transition." For the global automotive industry, the message is clear: the gasoline car era is ending, and the time to adapt is now.